This tool assists in early warning by assessing whether a country is at risk of violent conflict involving minorities. It is adapted from three sources: indicators identified by the UN Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide; ‘Indicators for Preventing Genocide’ adopted by the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD)⁵⁷; and indicators suggested by Minority Rights Group International in the report, Minority Rights: The Key to Conflict Prevention (2007).

Using this tool:

This tool is presented as an example only and indicators must be adapted to the specific country situation. It is most relevant in countries that have a history of inter-communal conflict. However, inter-communal tensions may emerge in any country and early signs of rising tension will be evident if monitored systematically. This tool can also help to assess whether existing tensions/violence are escalating towards genocide. In situations of on-going conflict, the data collected can help to identify probable root causes of conflict, which can in turn be used for devising appropriate conflict prevention and resolution measures. It would be beneficial if minority CSOs are consulted as to which subjects and indicators are most relevant for conflict prevention.

Any UNDP projects impacting on political reform, economic inequality, land rights, justice sector reform and education reform, would benefit from application of early warning monitoring to ensure that projects will not exacerbate tensions. UNDP in some COs (e.g. Kosovo, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) has prepared Early Warning Reports that include collection of data on inter-communal tensions involving minority groups.

In 2004, the UN Secretary-General created the office of the Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide. The Special Advisor has a mandate to collect information, in particular from within the UN system, on massive and serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law of ethnic and racial origin that, if not prevented or halted, might lead to genocide. This provides an early-warning mechanism to the Secretary–General and to the Security Council, and liaises with the UN system on activities to prevent genocide.

The CERD Indicators of Genocide serve as a tool for the Committee, when examining the situation in a State party under one of its procedures, to assess the existence of factors known to be important components of situations leading to conflict and genocide. If one or more of the indicators are present, this is to be stated clearly in the concluding observations or decision, and the Committee shall recommend that the State party report, within a fixed deadline, to the Committee under the followup procedure on what it intends to do to ameliorate the situation.

Several CSOs are engaged in early warning monitoring. The International Crisis Group monitors conflict in over 60 countries or situations of actual or potential conflict. Minority Rights Group International hosts a database on the situation of minority groups worldwide that is regularly updated. The Minorities At Risk project is a university-based monitoring mechanism that monitors and analyzes the status and conflicts of politically-active communal groups in all countries with a current population of at least 500,000. (See Annex V of this Guide for website details).

Table 7. Early Warning on Minorities and Conflict
Subject	Early Warning Monitoring	Possible Indicators	Data sources
	Is everyone able to practice their language, religion and culture freely? Is everyone able to choose their identity or identities without suffering a detriment? Does the State accept it has minorities? Are some groups, religions, cultures or languages given superior status, such as by stating the State is of a particular religion or people, or ‘constituent’ peoples?	Systematic official denial of the existence of particular distinct groups. Compulsory identification against the will of members of particular groups, including the use of identity cards indicating ethnicity. Legal or de facto restrictions on the expression of religious, linguistic or cultural identity in the public or private sphere.	Media reports, including minority language or minority group media outlets New or existing legislation Constitutional provisions UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports Ethnic Distance surveys
	Is there a history of violence and crimes against different groups? Where there is a history of major crimes against minorities has this been addressed, through investigations, prosecutions at the senior level, and apologies? Is there a common history curriculum, which reflects the history of all the communities in the country in a positive way	Grossly biased versions of historical events in school textbooks and other educational materials as well as celebration of historical events that exacerbate tensions between groups and peoples. Prior history of genocide or violence against a group. Policy or practice of impunity for past crimes. A history of vilification or dehumanization of a group including the use of symbols, flags or markings to conjure previous abuse; denial of past atrocities and genocides; and celebration of instances of perceived or actual abuse of a group.	Current school curricula and textbooks Public events Historical records Dialogue with minority groups
	Are different peoples able to mix? Do they live together? Are schools, housing, jobs segregated? Are there strict quota systems?	The systematic exclusion in law or in fact of groups from positions of power, employment in state institutions and key professions such as teaching, the judiciary and the police. Compulsory identification against the will of members of particular groups, including the use of identity cards indicating ethnicity. Policies of forced removal of children belonging to ethnic minorities with the purpose of complete assimilation. Policies of segregation, direct and indirect, for example separate schools and housing areas.	New or existing legislation UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports Ethnic Distance surveys Dialogue with minority groups
	Does the political system ensure participation by all groups, including women in all groups? Is the government accountable in fact to all groups? Does the political system encourage parties to seek support across different groups, or force parties and voters into ethnic or religious blocs? Where there is devolution or decentralization, are the boundaries arbitrary? If devolution is on the basis of ‘ethnic’ or ‘religious’ areas are minorities within those areas given equal rights and the ability to freely express their identity?	Grave statements by political leaders/prominent people that express support for affirmation of superiority of a race or an ethnic group, dehumanize and demonize minorities, or condone or justify violence against a minority. Development and organization of militia groups and/or extreme political groups based on a racist platform. Existence of proactive communities abroad fostering extremism and/or providing arms.	Public statements of government officials and political leaders Media reports, including minority language or minority group media outlets New or existing legislation Constitutional provisions UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports CSO reports Dialogue with minority groups Ethnic Distance surveys
	Does the Constitution guarantee equality? Is there systematic discrimination against particular groups? Are there laws against discrimination? Are these implemented? Are cases being brought and implemented? Can and do minorities use the justice system, especially in security, land/property and discrimination? Are there legal restrictions on the expression of religious, linguistic or cultural identity markers?	Existence and implementation of a legislative framework and institutions to prevent racial discrimination and provide recourse to victims of discrimination. Existence and implementation of a legislative framework and institutions to protect freedom of religion, freedom of expression, and cultural identity. Policy or practice of impunity for crimes committed against minorities.	New or existing legislation Constitutional provisions UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports Records of police arrests and incarceration of members of minority groups Records of prosecution for crimes committed against minorities Dialogue with minority groups
	Are any groups economically marginalised? Are development actors Is there understanding and action by those helping on development to address such marginalisation? Is development respectful of minorities’ identity, including language, religion, and land? Do minorities have equal access to water and arable land?	The systematic exclusion in law or in fact of groups from positions of power, employment in state institutions and key professions such as teaching, the judiciary and the police. Violence or severe restrictions targeting minority groups perceived to have traditionally maintained a prominent position, for example as business elites or in political life and state institutions. Significant disparities in socio economic indicators evidencing a pattern of serious racial discrimination. Policies aimed at the prevention of delivery of essential services or assistance, including obstruction of aid delivery or access to food, water, sanitation or essential medical supplies in certain regions or targeting specific groups.	UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports Disaggregated data on Human Development Indicators (e.g. by region, language, ethnicity, religion), employment rates, poverty rates and access to education Dialogue with minority groups
	Do minorities have full protection of their property and land rights, in law and in practice? Has there been historic eviction of minorities from their homes? Where there have been evictions, are there effective mechanisms to address this, providing restitution and/or compensation? Are the displaced people integrated into new homes where they can make a viable living and maintain their identity? Do minorities have equal access to water and arable land? Are important sites to religions and groups protected?	Lack of legal tenure for land and property of minority groups. Involuntary displacement of minority groups from their land or property, including without compensation. Displacement of minorities to land less arable, subject to environmental degradation or with poor access to water resources. Destruction, seizure of desecration of sites of culture and religious significance to minority groups.	New or existing legislation UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports Dialogue with minority groups
	Is hate speech tolerated against minorities, especially in the media and education? Is violence common against minorities? Is there any rule of law for minorities – do police protect them and arrest those who are violent towards them? Do minorities feel safe? Do minorities perceive increasing levels of inter-ethnic tension?	Systematic and widespread use and acceptance of speech or propaganda promoting hatred and/or inciting violence against minority groups, particularly in the media. Grave statements by political leaders/prominent people that express support for affirmation of superiority of a race or an ethnic group, dehumanize and demonize minorities, or condone or justify violence against a minority. Violence or severe restrictions targeting minority groups perceived to have traditionally maintained a prominent position, for example as business elites or in political life and state institutions. Serious patterns of individual attacks on members of minorities by private citizens which appear to be principally motivated by the victims’ membership of that group. Development and organization of militia groups and/or extreme political groups based on a racist platform. Existence of proactive communities abroad fostering extremism and/or providing arms.	Media reports, including minority language or minority group media outlets UN Treaty Body reports NHRI reports Public statements of government officials and political leaders Records of police arrests and incarceration of members of minority groups Records of prosecution for crimes committed against minorities Dialogue with minority groups Ethnic Distance surveys